How accurate is it?
Short version - it is incredibly accurate. If you look at the predicted temperature two minutes into the future it is within 1 degree celcius of where your roast machine will be. At 30 seconds into the future it is within .5° celcius. It's so accurate that in fact, we can't get closer than that due to the accuracy of your thermocouples. At these temperatures these tiny variations mean it is within 1% of the actual temperature inside the drum at any given time.
How is this level of accuracy possible? We’ve built a machine learning algorithm that takes gas changes and the machine type into account in order to predict your bean temperature curve. Now you will be able to make adjustments instantly and make sure you stay on track of your reference!
What does this mean for you, your roast machine and your coffee?
You can see how your bean temperature and RoR will progress in the future and adjust accordingly! Roasting Intelligence now features an intelligent predictive curve line which shows where your bean temperature will be 2 minutes in the future. That means you can compare it with the reference curve in the background to see any variation between the prediction and your reference curve so you can adjust as needed. With this new information, you can make changes and adjust the gas flow to keep your curve on the reference with far greater accuracy and less stress - the result? Even more consistent roasts! This also means you’ll be able to develop new profiles and train your new staff members more easily.
How does it work when you're roasting?
Bean curve prediction begins 60 seconds into your roast and appears as a dashed curve extending past your running bean temperature curve. It updates every second. That means the further into the roast you go, the more accurate the prediction becomes.
What are roasters saying about it:
“These features are extremely useful for someone who is just getting started with roasting. The prediction really helped me see how certain changes I made to temp and airflow had an effect on the roast.”
Christian, Mission Coffee Co.
“We are pretty happy with the prediction. Especially when we are designing new profiles for new coffees. Setup was super easy, no technical issues whatsoever.”
Onno, Stooker Specialty Coffee
"What we like most about the curve is the work with new coffees where you don’t know how they will react, yet. The curve prediction helps you to decide whether to reduce gas already or hold the current setting a little longer. So if you reduce gas too early and your temperature drops, it is very hard to iron that out by keeping the roast time the same. So with curve prediction, this problem is basically solved."
"I love the Predictions you guys integrated. It definitely helps with making adjustments and staying ahead of the curve on offense rather than on defense and chasing the curve. Crazy way of putting it, but that's how I view it."
Ted, Symmetry Coffee & Crepes
Amazing. How does the machine learning actually work?
As you know, there is a lot of information to consider, collect and analyze in a modern roastery. That’s why we started a research project, the Cropster Data Project, to analyze completely anonymized roast data created by our customers. Many customers have joined the project. That gave us a rich dataset to work with. We used this anonymized data and a set of characteristics of roast profiles/curves to train a machine learning algorithm based on them. The people who joined the project have also been the first to test the results. The algorithm and our predictive curve projection will continue to improve and make even better bean temperature curve predictions over time as more people join the project and roast. Would you be interested in joining the Cropster Data Project and getting an earlier insight into developments like these? Check out all the details and how to join here.
Finally, the bean temperature curve and RoR predictions are a feature of RI 4. Oh and they work on any roast machine with any profile. Happy Roasting!
Interested in learning more about bean curve prediction? Watch the release webinar we held on Wednesday, July 8th, 2020.